Study in Progress
Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection ArchitectureNuclear and Radiation Studies Board
Statement of Task
An ad hoc committee will conduct a study and prepare a report to the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) on quantitative approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture, specifically in the context of the following two tasks:
Task 1: Evaluating progress toward meeting the performance goals in the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture Strategic Plan
The committee should assess the feasibility of using performance measures and quantitative metrics for evaluating progress in meeting these performance goals. This assessment should consider the following factors:
Definition of performance measures for each of the performance goals in the Strategic Plan.
Definition of quantifiable performance metrics for each performance measure including, as appropriate, efficiency, output, and outcome-oriented performance measures.
Identification of data to be used to quantify these performance metrics.
Identification of methodologies to be used to collect and analyze these data.
Specification of performance target values for assessing the effectiveness of each performance measure.
If the use of performance measures and quantitative metrics is determined to be feasible, the committee should, to the extent practical, recommend specific performance measures, metrics, and the other supporting information described in the list above for consideration by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office.
If the use of performance measures and metrics is determined to be infeasible, the committee should recommend alternative evaluation approaches.
Task 2: Evaluating the overall effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture
The committee should specifically recommend
Approaches for developing an overall analysis framework to assess the effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture in terms of its ability to detect, deny, confuse, and/or deter adversaries.
Approaches for exercising this analysis framework using combinations of modeling/simulation, red teaming, and/or related methods to assess the cost effectiveness of and tradeoffs in Global Nuclear Detection Architecture components.
In executing these tasks the committee should examine efforts by other organizations to develop risk-informed metrics and analysis approaches for complex technological systems.